AI Home Energy Rating & Retrofit Advisor

01Executive summary

The idea is sound and well timed. The UK is moving from a voluntary "nice to have" energy rating toward a hard, dated compliance regime, and the tooling that exists today is either free but rule-based and shallow, or genuinely capable but locked inside expensive enterprise contracts. A credible, instant, AI-driven "enter an address, get your likely rating and a costed path to compliance" product has a real opening on both sides of the market.

• The trigger is now legislated direction. In January 2026 the Government confirmed that privately rented homes in England & Wales must reach EPC C by 1 October 2030, with the cost cap rising to £10,000 per property. It is confirmed policy, with the enabling law targeted for 2027.
• The addressable pool is large. Around 44% of English homes (roughly 11 million) sit below EPC C, and the private rented sector (4.9 million homes, ~2.3 million landlords) is the most exposed and the most motivated to act.
• The competition has a clear gap, and we have a unique edge. Free consumer tools (including the Government's own) are rule-based, not AI; the powerful AI/modelling tools are B2B-only and expensive. Crucially, no one offers a guided photo-and-video AI assessment, where the app tells the user exactly what to film, then the AI analyses the footage and produces detailed recommendations. That visual engine is our core, hard-to-copy advantage.
• The upside is real even at a tiny share. At a £29 assessment with marketing at ~50% of revenue, capturing 0.5% / 1% / 2% of the below-EPC-C pool yields roughly £0.8M / £1.6M / £3.2M of after-marketing contribution per year (B2C only, before any B2B revenue). See section 07.
• The economics work. A real EPC costs £60 to £120 and a formal retrofit assessment £150 to £300, both needing an in-person visit. An instant AI pre-assessment can sit profitably below that on B2C, and per-property / SaaS on B2B, with lead generation to assessors and installers as a second revenue line.

02The product

A web/app product where a user enters a property address and receives, in seconds:

• An estimated energy-efficiency class for the home or flat (the existing EPC where one is on the register, or an AI estimate where it is missing or out of date).
• AI-generated recommendations on what to improve, in priority order, with indicative cost, expected rating uplift and bill savings.
• A clear "path to compliance" with the upcoming EPC C requirement, plus eligibility for grants and finance, and a route to a vetted assessor or installer.

The same engine serves two audiences with two interfaces: a consumer-facing report (B2C) and a portfolio/compliance dashboard (B2B) for landlords, letting agents, lenders and housing providers.

The core differentiator: guided photo and video AI assessment

The product is not only a text-and-address estimate. Its main advantage, and the thing the market does not currently offer in this form, is a guided visual assessment:

• Guided capture. The app tells the user exactly what to photograph or film, walking them to the specific places that matter (windows and seals, walls, loft and insulation, the boiler and heating controls, meters, draughts and damp-prone spots, the roof line) so a non-expert captures the right evidence.
• Photo and video, not just stills. The user can record a short walkthrough video of the property; the AI reads the footage frame by frame, not only individual uploaded photos.
• Full AI evaluation. The AI identifies likely problem areas (single glazing, missing insulation, an old boiler, damp, draughts), estimates their impact on the rating, and combines that with the address and property data to produce a far more grounded estimate than a form alone.
• Highly detailed recommendations. The output is a long, specific, prioritised action list: what to fix, in what order, indicative cost, the rating points each measure adds, payback, grant eligibility and the route to a vetted installer.

This visual layer is the moat. Most tools take a postcode or a form; one competitor accepts static photo uploads, but a guided photo-plus-video capture with this depth of AI analysis and recommendation is, to our knowledge, not offered on the UK market today. It also produces a proprietary dataset (real images tied to outcomes) that improves the model over time and is hard for rivals to copy.

03Why now: the regulatory driver

The market is being created by regulation. The key distinction below is between what is already law and what is confirmed policy but not yet enacted.

Sources: gov.uk EPC and MEES guidance; "Improving the energy performance of privately rented homes" 2025 consultation and 2026 government response; EPB regime reform consultation; Fuel Poverty Strategy review; Future Homes and Buildings Standard; Warm Homes Plan. Full links in References. Scope is England & Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland run separate schemes.

04Market size

Recurring "trigger moments"

Beyond the standing stock, the market refreshes every year through moments when an energy rating and an upgrade plan become relevant:

• Around 1.1 million residential property transactions a year (an EPC is required to market a property).
• Roughly 1.76 million domestic EPCs lodged a year (plus ~95,000 non-domestic), showing the baseline demand for ratings.
• Several hundred thousand remortgages a year, increasingly tied to "green" lending where energy data matters to the lender.
• The £15bn Warm Homes Plan and grant schemes (Boiler Upgrade Scheme, the Warm Homes funds) actively push owners and landlords to assess and upgrade.

The typical English home still scores band D (median EPC 68), so the "below C" pool is large but shrinking year on year as upgrades land. Sources: MHCLG Dwelling Stock 2024, English Housing Survey 2024-25, ONS, HMRC/Savills, gov.uk EPB statistics, Warm Homes Plan. Landlord and agent counts are from trade/industry data. Full links in References.

05Competitive landscape

The market has three layers. No single player unifies them, and the layer closest to the proposed product (instant, AI, visual, consumer-friendly) is the thinnest. Below are the most relevant players in each layer.

A longer tail exists (Sero, Sava, Elmhurst, Vibrant, Less, August, MyEPCUpgrade, Rightmove/Zoopla EPC display) but they are either niche, enterprise, in-person, or simple free calculators, and do not change the picture.

Where the gap is, and why our visual engine wins

• No guided photo-plus-video AI assessment. This is the headline opening. The closest player (EcogradeAI) accepts static photo uploads; nobody guides the user to film specific problem areas and runs a full video analysis with this depth of recommendation. This is our core advantage.
• "AI" in name only. Most consumer tools, including the Government's, are rule-based calculators, not real AI.
• Credible estimates where no EPC exists. EPC-gap modelling is locked in expensive B2B; consumers have no transparent, confidence-scored AI estimate when the certificate is missing or a decade old. Our visual capture fills exactly that gap.
• Modern, low-carbon advice. Official EPCs never recommend heat pumps and use pessimistic defaults; an AI giving real-world recommendations stands out.
• End-to-end flow. Few products connect the estimate to grants, finance and a vetted installer in one journey.
• 2026 methodology churn. The move to four EPC metrics opens a window while incumbents rebuild their logic.

06Business model and pricing

Two revenue engines off one AI core: a consumer (B2C) freemium product, and a recurring B2B product for landlords, agents, lenders and housing providers. Figures below are grounded in current benchmarks and are estimates to validate, not fixed prices.

What the market pays today (benchmarks)

07Revenue scenarios

A simple, transparent model of what capturing a small slice of the market is worth. These are illustrative estimates to pressure-test the idea, not forecasts.

Assumptions

• Addressable base: ~11 million homes below EPC C in England.
• Price: £29 per paid AI assessment (the B2C anchor; a real EPC is £60 to £120).
• Marketing and lead generation: ~50% of revenue, as instructed. So roughly £14.50 of every £29 is gross contribution.
• Other costs (AI inference, property data, platform, support): assumed ~20% of revenue, giving an indicative operating margin of ~30%.
• B2B revenue is excluded from these figures. It is entirely upside on top.

Three outcomes (B2C, per year at steady state)

Worked example (Base, 1%): 11,000,000 × 1% = 110,000 assessments × £29 = £3.19M gross. Less 50% marketing = £1.60M contribution. Less ~20% other costs = ~£0.96M operating profit.

Price / plan sensitivity (at the 1% base case)

The subscription can bundle one assessment or several (for example a plan that includes 2 to 3 assessments for a household or a small landlord). That raises revenue per customer (ARPU):

08Risks and things to validate

• Regulatory timing. EPC C by 2030 is confirmed policy but not yet law (legislation targeted 2027). A delay or change would soften the "deadline" urgency, though the direction is firm.
• Shifting methodology. EPCs move to four metrics via the Home Energy Model from ~late 2026; the rating logic must be built against the new framework, which was still being finalised.
• Accuracy and trust. An AI estimate must be transparent and confidence-scored; over-claiming accuracy invites complaints. It is explicitly not a legal EPC.
• Free incumbents. The Government and Energy Saving Trust offer free tools; the product must clearly out-perform them on speed, depth and modern (low-carbon) advice.
• Data access. The free EPC open-data source changed in 2026; the product should not depend on a single feed.
• Unit economics. Per-report AI/data cost must stay well below the price; B2C margins are thin without the B2B and referral lines.

09References

Primary sources used in this brief (accessed June 2026). Government policy items are England & Wales unless stated.

1. GOV.UK — Energy Performance Certificates (buy/sell your home): https://www.gov.uk/buy-sell-your-home/energy-performance-certificates
2. GOV.UK — Domestic private rented property MEES, landlord guidance: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/domestic-private-rented-property-minimum-energy-efficiency-standard-landlord-guidance
3. GOV.UK — Non-domestic private rented property MEES guidance: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/non-domestic-private-rented-property-minimum-energy-efficiency-standard-landlord-guidance
4. GOV.UK — Improving the energy performance of privately rented homes (2025 update / 2026 response): https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/improving-the-energy-performance-of-privately-rented-homes-2025-update
5. GOV.UK — PRS homes energy performance, government response (PDF): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69722b193f2908a349040547/prs-homes-energy-performance-government-response.pdf
6. GOV.UK — Reforms to the Energy Performance of Buildings regime (partial response): https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/reforms-to-the-energy-performance-of-buildings-regime/outcome/reforms-to-the-energy-performance-of-buildings-regime-partial-government-response
7. GOV.UK — Non-domestic PRS MEES (EPC B) interim response: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/non-domestic-private-rented-sector-minimum-energy-efficiency-standards-epc-b-implementation
8. GOV.UK — Review of the Fuel Poverty Strategy (response): https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/review-of-the-fuel-poverty-strategy
9. GOV.UK — Future Homes and Buildings Standards (Building Circular 01/2026): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-homes-and-buildings-standards-building-circular-012026
10. Legislation.gov.uk — Clean Heat Market Mechanism Regulations 2025: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/81/body
11. GOV.UK — Warm Homes Plan: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/warm-homes-plan/warm-homes-plan-html
12. GOV.UK — Dwelling stock estimates, England 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwelling-stock-estimates-in-england-2024/dwelling-stock-estimates-england-31-march-2024
13. GOV.UK — English Housing Survey 2024-25, energy efficiency: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/chapters-for-english-housing-survey-2024-to-2025-headline-findings-on-housing-quality-and-energy-efficiency/chapter-2-energy-efficiency
14. GOV.UK — English Private Landlord Survey 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-private-landlord-survey-2024-main-report/english-private-landlord-survey-2024-main-report
15. GOV.UK — EPB certificates statistics (Jul-Sep 2025): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-performance-of-building-certificates-in-england-and-wales-july-to-september-2025
16. ONS — Energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales 2024: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/energyefficiencyofhousinginenglandandwales/2024
17. HMRC / Savills — UK property transactions 2024: https://www.savills.co.uk/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/374618/
18. GOV.UK — Get energy performance data (open data): https://get-energy-performance-data.communities.gov.uk/
19. Competitors: Snugg https://www.snugg.com/ · Furbnow https://furbnow.com/ · Heatio https://www.heatio.com/ · Kamma https://www.kammaclimate.com/ · PropEco https://www.propeco.io/ · Parity/Cotality https://www.cotality.com/uk/products/portfolio · Sava https://sava.co.uk/ · Elmhurst https://www.elmhurstenergy.co.uk/ · EcogradeAI https://ecograde.ai/ · Energy Saving Trust https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/tool/homewise · Vibrant (via NatWest) · Less https://less.co.uk/tools/epc-estimator · August https://www.augustapp.com/calculators/ · MyEPCUpgrade https://myepcupgrade.co.uk/calculator/
20. Pricing benchmarks: HomeOwners Alliance (EPC cost) https://hoa.org.uk/advice/guides-for-homeowners/i-am-selling/how-much-does-an-epc-cost/ · Checkatrade (retrofit assessor cost) https://www.checkatrade.com/blog/cost-guides/retrofit-assessor-cost/ · Homedata API https://homedata.co.uk/data/epc-energy

Note on recency: confirmed sources run to the January 2026 Warm Homes Plan and related responses. Items marked "confirmed, not yet law" require secondary legislation expected in 2027 and should be re-checked before any go-to-market commitment. Market and pricing figures are best available estimates and, where noted, third-party or trade data.